New Year predictions

It's the start of the year, near enough, so it's prediction time. Here are some sensible predictions and here is someone being pretty rigorous about marking his predictions. But I want to give you three predictions that you (or at least I) haven't seen elsewhere.

1. President Trump's unconventional approach to diplomacy will result in a significant breakthrough in one or more of North Korea-South Korea or Israeli-Palestinian negotiations (not necessarily in 2018 but before the end of 2020). Simple explanation: Trump is the most powerful man in the world; he appears to care very much about doing deals (much more so than his predecessors, who were more concerned with other things, such as established methods of diplomacy, the respect of their peers, norms, decorum, etc); these are two regions that seem to interest him personally; these are two regions where large numbers of people stand to benefit from a deal of some kind; so it stands to reason that there is a good chance of deals in these regions, or at least a significantly higher chance than there was before Trump came along.

Will Trump achieve a good deal in either region? A lot of people would be inclined to think that any deal in these regions would be better than no deal. There's a lot to be said for that: the actual answer to the Schleswig-Holstein question (quick - what was it?) is much less important than the fact that Germany and Denmark are not now preparing for war with each other; and it's hard to imagine someone thinking that the precise arrangements resulting from the Good Friday Agreement are perfect, but it was better than the alternatives on offer. I say let's wait and see: for all his personal faults and infelicities, Trump has exceeded expectations too many times already to be written off as a non-achiever in the field of politics.

2. At least one of UKIP and the LibDems will get a new leader (before the next General Election). Of course, personal issues could cause a leadership change: UKIP's leader has just left his (second) wife for a much younger woman, Vince Cable is already 74, etc. etc. But I am really thinking of the 'phantom limb' syndrome both of these parties suffer from: they instinctively think they are still important and want to behave as if they are. Moreover, they both suffer from Brexit-confusion: so many people still care about Brexit (they think to themselves) - and we have strong brands on Brexit - so why don't they vote for us? I think both of them will do badly in by-elections and council elections, and at least one of them will try to improve things by changing something that they can change, namely their leader, and counting on the little burst of publicity that that would generate. Cable also has a reasonably high risk of finding himself on the wrong side of a social issue that young vocal LibDems would get worked up about: perhaps he is too close to Lord Rennard, or perhaps he will be caught out by being insufficiently fierce on someone else accused of inappropriate behaviour or transphobism or what have you.

3. China will replace Russia as the main bogeyman in Western media (again, by the end of 2020). Have you heard how Russia was able to do what the entire US media, US$1.2bn in campaign spending, the Clinton dynasty, the Bush dynasty, and both the Democrat and Republican Parties all failed to do, i.e. determine the outcome of the last US Presidential election? You might also have heard that Russia did all that right after doing what the entire British political and business establishment, Barack Obama and everyone who has ever given a dinner party failed to do in the UK, i.e. determine the outcome of the Brexit referendum. What's more, Russia did it all just by using a few internet commentators and some Facebook ads!

I am pretty confident that we have not yet got to the end of such stories about Russia. But eventually people will spot that China's GDP and population are each about 9 times as big as Russia's (look it up if you want), and that China is not short of high-tech people who care about the internet (Great Firewall of China, anyone?). In short, China is a pretty big deal in a way that Russia isn't. Moreover, as Trump started to show in his election campaign, there is a market for anti-Chinese sentiment in Western countries, and I suspect enterprising politicians and commentators will want to fill that gap. In the meantime, just read this.