Wednesday, 27 July 2016

Trump will win

So says Michael MooreThis guy is worried about it too. This is why. Or maybe this. Scott Adams also explains it a lot (e.g. here).

You want data? FiveThirtyEight is the place for you. Here is the graph showing their assessment of who would win if the election were held today:

So it's basically a toss-up at the moment but Trump is ahead and has been improving. (FiveThirtyEight has other models for predicting the result in November - but they are not great reading for Clinton either.)

Here are two other points.

First, although it's pretty easy to think of events that could help Trump's chances, it's hard to think of ones that help Clinton's: terrorist attacks, for example, play more to Trump than Clinton. Or imagine any plausible revelation about a candidate's private affairs: could Trump's reputation be affected? Short of it turning out that in fact he's poor, it's hard to see how. But all kinds of revelations about the Clintons could be unhelpful for her.

Second, everyone has already made up their mind about Clinton. She's not gaining new converts. But as the idea of President Trump becomes more familiar to people, more people will come to accept it and perhaps welcome it.

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