Wednesday, 2 March 2016

What to do about the US elections?

If you can't vote then perhaps you can bet.

SkyBet is offering 8/15 on Clinton and 9/4 on Trump to be the next President. If you are interested in emotional hedging against a Trump victory then you can put a lot of money on Trump to win.

If you are convinced that either Clinton or Trump must win then £2X on Clinton and £X-10.05X on Trump will make you a little bit of money. Do you have a better option? Interest rates don't look like they're going up anytime soon.

If you think the prospect of either a Trump victory or a Clinton victory is uninviting but not certain then betting on both of them still makes sense: you only lose only if some Rubio/Kasich/Sanders miracle happens, which will cheer you up a bit and maybe more than make up for losing your stake.

Now you can't blame me if you're not happy about something after the results come in.

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