Thursday, 2 April 2015

The General Election - big money betting

I have no idea who is going to win the General Election. But I'm not just saying that - I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

Below is my betting slip. (It is expressed in decimal odds: 101.00 means 100/1 for example. These are the odds available at Ladbrokes - some of these bets may be available at better odds elsewhere but Ladbrokes seemed to be the best place to put all of them.)

Some of these odds look crazy to me, in particular Cons/LD/DUP at 50/1 and Cons/DUP at 100/1. These seem to me to be pretty plausible outcomes, more in the 10/1 - 20/1 range.

Moreover, the overall position appears quite attractive: I win money (ranging from £30 to £900) on what seems to me to be any plausible outcome other than a minority government or a Conservative majority. The polling indicates that there will not be a Conservative majority. So I suppose the bets below demonstrate that I believe that the last 5 years of coalition government have been such a success that whoever ends up with the most seats will want to repeat it. Hmm. Perhaps the bookies are right after all.

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